En el horizonte se divisa una cruz dorada.
Bitcoin (BTC) currently shows signs of optimism, despite being in a long consolidation period.
After reaching a new all-time high in March around $73,700, Bitcoin has been trading within a wide range for the past seven months. However, recent market behavior indicates strength to overcome this phase.
For over two months, Bitcoin has been experiencing a mini bullish trend (within a macro bearish trend), with increasing higher lows and higher highs. This breaks the previous five months of bearish momentum, bringing the market closer to forming a golden cross.
A golden cross occurs when a short-term simple moving average (SMA) of the price crosses above a long-term SMA. Typically, the 50 and 200-day SMAs are used as significant indicators of these timeframes. This pattern suggests a potential confirmation of an asset’s bullish trend, indicating stronger short-term demand and serving as a buy signal for traders.
As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s 50-day SMA has been rising for a month, while the 200-day SMA is slightly decreasing. If this trend continues, they will soon cross, forming a golden cross.
The last time a golden cross like this occurred was in late October of the previous year, preceding a sustained bullish trend that took Bitcoin from $28,000 to $73,700 in five months, representing a 160% increase.
Markets tend to repeat patterns due to traders’ psychology, so it would not be surprising if a similar trend occurs now with October present. This month historically has been the most bullish for Bitcoin, adding points in favor of strengthening demand.
October could end bullishly for Bitcoin, but better months may come
Given the current environment, it is likely that this month will end on a positive note, unless unexpected events affect market sentiment. For example, global recession concerns or escalating conflicts in the Middle East or Russia-Ukraine could impact demand negatively.
As the US presidential elections approach on November 5, they are seen as a key point for the crypto market. Candidates’ support for the industry plays a significant role, with Republican candidate Donald Trump going beyond mere support and planning to hold national reserves in Bitcoin if elected.
With a higher chance of Trump winning the elections according to betting markets like Polymarket, Bitcoin could find strength to continue its uptrend.
However, while Bitcoin shows a sustained consolidation period at the moment, it is likely that this month will not be the most bullish compared to upcoming ones. The need for higher demand volumes to see significant price increases due to Bitcoin’s larger market capitalization is a factor to consider.
The key now is for Bitcoin to surpass $68,000
Bitcoin has faced resistance around $68,000 this week after maintaining a bullish trend for over two months. Overcoming this barrier and maintaining proximity to this price level is crucial for Bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory.
If Bitcoin surpasses this hurdle, it could target previous resistance levels around $70,000 and then $73,000. Combined with increasing higher lows, this breakout could lead Bitcoin to new all-time highs, sparking bullish sentiment.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CriptoNoticias. The author’s opinion is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or financial guidance.
